The Real estate market is still active and the median sales price continues to remain steady – It has been roughly between 400k and 425K for over 24 months. Inventory is still below what is needed for a balanced market, but new listings are rising. Below are July 2024 calculations.
PRICE: The median sales price was $425,473, up about 5% from July 2023. The average sales price was $658,344. The median price per sqft was $228 and the average was $300 / sqft
NEW SALES: Pending sales for July were at 2,139 up 15.3 from July 2023
SUPPLY: There were 2139 New Listings in July 2024 – up 15.6%. The median days on market was 20, with approximately 2.9 months of inventory. Still under the 5 months of inventory recommended for a balanced market.
CLOSED SALES: 382 properties closed in July 2024 which is up 10 percent from July of 2023.
As we move into the second half of 2024, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales.
Home Prices Are Expected To Climb Moderately
Home prices are forecasted to rise at a more normal pace. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from seven of the most trusted sources in the industry:
The reason for continued appreciation? The supply of homes for sale. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“One thing that seems to be pretty solid is that home prices are going to continue to go up, and the reason is that we don’t have housing inventory.”
While inventory is up compared to the last couple of years, it’s still low overall. And because there still aren’t enough homes to go around, that’ll keep upward pressure on prices.
If you’re thinking of buying, the good news is you won’t have to deal with prices skyrocketing like they did during the pandemic. Just remember, prices aren’t expected to drop. They’ll continue climbing, just at a slower pace.
Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down Slightly
One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit, according to Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and NAR (see chart below):
When you buy, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For sellers, lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market, which can help you sell faster and potentially at a higher price.
Home Sales Are Projected To Hold Steady
For 2024, the number of home sales will be about the same as last year and may even rise slightly. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR to the 4.8 million homes that sold last year:
The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why:
“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”
With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year.
The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why:
“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”
With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year. This means more people will be able to move.
If you have considered buying or selling, feel free to contact me anytime! I have 25 years’ experience and can help you navigate today’s market to reach your goals.
The Median sales Price at the end of June in the Charleston MLS was $425,000 and the average sales price $646,792
The Median sale price in the Charleston market continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $425k where it has been for most of the last 24+ months. In June, the Median Sale Price matched it’s all time high of approximately $425,000 – has remained at that level for three consecutive months.
The seasonal surge in median is trending about 3% above last year’s seasonal surge, suggesting that the current pricing in our market has a solid base for additional price gains.
WRIITEN SALES
Written sales market-wide finished +3% in June of ’24 versus June of ’23, the first year-over-year increase in 2024. This is an indicator of future sales.
Last week saw 281 properties go under contract market-wide.
The orange line represents ratified contracts by week last year…the green line is this year…and the blue line is the 15 year average for each week.
Follow the green line below.
Using a median gives you the middle point of the data that is less likely to be skewed, Most experts believe it is best for tracking data Longterm.
PRICE PER SQFT
While the median sales price is remaining in a tight band, The Average Sold Dollar per sqft remains at an all-time high, well above one year ago, indicating that consumers are getting a smaller house for the money and that homes are continuing to appreciate despite a stable median Sale Price
INVENTORY
2,113 New listings came on the market in June 2024 which is a 6.1 % increase over June of 2023 and year to date, there is a16.6% increase of new listings over 2023.
Active Inventory stands at approximately 3,800 listings in mid July.
While this level of inventory is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022, we still need roughly 4,300 additional listings market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)
The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is substantial. see chart below.
NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES
New construction represents 42% of all pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprises about 38% of the closings.
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Foreclosures and Short Sales continue to hold at a combined 0.9% of all available listings currently. They are still at extremely low levels.
OVER-MILLION MARKET
We are at roughly double the monthly pre-pandemic sales levels of $1MM+ properties. This market segment remains surprisingly robust.
These statistics reflect the entire Charleston Metro area, but real estate is hyper-local and can vary by area and neighborhood. If you would like information about your neighborhood and home, please don’t hesitate to contact me!
At the end of May 2024, the median sales price closed out in the Charleston MLS at $425,000 and Median Days on Market was 12.
The current level of demand, although down 40% from 2021, is pacing around the 15 year average and is happening when interest rates are the highest that they have been in 20-25 years . Further, prices are hovering at their record highs and have been for aproximately18 months. This means that affordability is more challenging than it has been for the last few decades (high prices + high rates) and yet sales sit at a historically appropriate level in terms of units. This suggests that the consumer wants and/or needs housing to the point where they are willing to deal with affordability issues – at least for now.
The chart below shows this year’s number of ratified contracts market wide by week (green), last year’s number (orange) and the 15 year average (blue). As you can see, the green line has tracked very closely with the blue line with only two weeks well below the 15 year average and one week well above the 15 year average.
Supply
When a life change occurs (Marriage, death, additions to a family, new job, etc) frequently, housing needs change which often leads to a new listing entering the housing market.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen a pause in this cycle as interest rates have risen rapidly from the 3 percent range into the mid 7 percent range. Homeowners who have a mortgage in place at a very low interest rate are reluctant to part with that low rate and move into a home, with a higher rate, that may better suits their needs.
According to ICE Mortgage Technology, over 90% of the mortgages in the United States have a mortgage rate under 6%.
See below from ICE:
Change still happens in people’s lives and homeowners can only hold back for so long. They will eventually list their homes (move) when the life circumstances dictate the need is great, despite the rate differential. We have been seeing this happen.
This trend started in November of 2023. In the chart below, the orange line shows listings taken in the most recent 12 months and the blue line shows the prior 12 months. You’ll note that, inside the red circle (November onward), new listings taken have outpaced the prior year every month.
A Balanced Market
A “balanced market” is generally considered to be when we have around 5 months of inventory, meaning that the current level of listings, if no new properties enter the market, would sell down to zero in five months based on current sales levels. On average, it would take five months (150 days) to sell a home.
Months of inventory” is simply a way of measuring supply and demand, which of course is what drives pricing.
At roughly five months of inventory, home prices stabilize
If we have less than five months of inventory, prices generally increase
If we have more than 5-6 months of inventory, prices generally soften
Where is the Charleston housing market’s month’s of supply currently?
At May’s end MLS stats reflected approximately 2.6 month’s supply of inventory, still leaning toward a Seller’s market.
Below is to illustrate the gap (red arrow) between the inventory that we have (blue line) and the inventory that we need in order to have a balanced market (yellow line):
What does this mean?
For now, we don’t have enough inventory to meet demand (although inventory is slowly building)
Too little inventory for demand means that there is good support for current prices and perhaps a little more room for prices to grow
Worth noting:
Over the last 4 years or so, the market has been so imbalanced in favor of sellers that we now often see listing agents and/or sellers get uncomfortable/nervous/start to panic after a mere week or two on the market without a sale
What we’ve experienced over the last few years has skewed expectations to the point where favorable selling conditions that aren’t quite a “hot” market feels like things are “slow”
The latest monthly housing report from Realtor.com® reveals that the typical listed price per square foot grew by a whopping 52.7% from May 2019 to May 2024.
The price per square foot is a crucial metric in real estate because it allows for easy comparison between different properties, regardless of their size. And while this is valuable information, it’s only one data point of many that buyers and sellers should consider.
Examining the markets with the steepest rises in price per square foot reveals substantial growth in popular metropolitan areas. Based on listing price, properties in the New York City metro area (+84.7%), Boston (+72.9%), and Nashville, TN (+68.6%), have seen the great increases in price per square foot since May 2019.
LOCAL – CHARLESTON MLS
Locally, our median price per sqft has increased about 65% from May of 2019 to May of 2024. Our median price per/sqft in May of 2019 was $150 / sqft and in May of 2024 it was $229 / sqft .
Our median sales price has increased about 67% from May of 2019 to May of 2024. Our median sales price in May of 2019 was $285,000 and in May of 2024 it was $425,000
March’s Median sales price was $413,500, up 2.6 percent from March of 2023
Median Days on Market was 16, down 20 percent from March of 2023
Sales – Closed homes in March 2024 were down 6.8 percent compared to March 2023, possibly due to higher interest rates, but it seems that buyers that were holding out for lower rates have started taking the plunge, as evidence by the pending sales – which rose 5.9 percent year-over-year and 6.7% year-to-date, which could Indicate we are moving into a busy spring market!
New Inventory is continuing to Increase! New Listings are up 17.3 percent year-to-date. and although inventory is still constrained there is definitely more homes coming on-line to help with demand. At the end of March, we had 2.4 months of inventory, compared to 1.74 months in March of 2023.
Here are the latest stats from Charleston Metro MLS – February 2024 calculations.
The median sales price for the Charleston Market has remained fairly steady with a median a sales price of $407,235. up about 6% above February 2023.
While the median sales price has remained in a tight band, between 400k-420k, for most of the previous 24 months, the seasonal dip in median price that is typically experienced around the first of the year bottomed out about 6% above last year’s seasonal dip (2/2023 vs 2/2024), suggesting that the current pricing in our market has a solid base and given low inventory levels relative to sales levels, this could mean that additional price gains lie ahead.
The inventory calculated at February’s end was at 2.5 months, which is an increase over last February’s 1.76 months.
Active Inventory stands at approximately 2,900 listings. While this level of inventory is a significant increase from the low of last February, but we still need roughly 3,500 additional listings market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)
The average days on market was calculated at 48 (median was 25) at February’s end.
Although inventory is low, we have recently had an increase in new listings coming onto the market.
New listings taken have gone up dramatically over the past sixty days with more than 2,000 new listings coming online in February, +36% to the number of listings taken last February. This should help drive sales this spring and summer.
1287 sold properties in February 2024, up 11.6 % from last February’s but written sales, market wide, was down -4%.
Last week saw 291 properties go under contract.
New construction represents 41% of all pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprises about 35% of the closings.
Foreclosures and Short Sales continue to hold at a combined .7% of all available listings currently. This is down from 1.8% of all available listings on 1/1/2020. There are very few “newly distressed” properties in the pipeline.
Surprisingly, we are at roughly double the monthly pre-pandemic sales levels of properties over one million. This market segment remains surprisingly robust.
Keep in mind, this is a snapshot of the entire Metro Market, real estate is hyper-local and stats will vary within the different areas of the market. If you would like information about your property or neighborhood, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
Over the past few months, experts have revised their 2024 home price forecasts based on the latest data and market signals, and they’re even more confident prices will rise, not fall.
What’s caused the change?
2024 Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now
The chart below shows what seven expert organizations think will happen to home prices in 2024. It compares their first 2024 home price forecasts (made at the end of 2023) with their newest projections:
The middle column shows that, at first, these experts thought home prices would only go up a little this year. But if you look at the column on the right, you’ll see they’ve all updated their forecasts and now think prices will go up more than they originally thought. And some of the differences are major.
There are two big factors keeping such strong upward pressure on home prices. The first is how few homes are for sale right now. According to Business Insider:
“Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up . . .”
A lack of housing inventory has been pushing prices up for a long time now – and that’s not expected to change dramatically this year. But what has changed a bit is mortgage rates.
Late last year when most housing market experts were calling for home prices to rise only a little bit in 2024, mortgage rates were up and buyer demand was more moderate.
Now that rates have come down from their peak last October, and with further declines expected over the course of the year, buyer demand has picked up. That increase in demand, along with an ongoing lack of inventory, is what’s caused the experts to feel the upward pressure on prices will be stronger than they expected a couple months ago.
A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Forecast Revisions
Real estate experts regularly revise their home price forecasts as the housing market shifts. It’s a normal part of their job that ensures their projections are always up-to-date and factor in the latest changes in the housing market.
That means they’ll continue to revise their projections as the housing market changes, just as they’ve always done. How those forecasts change next is anyone’s guess but pay attention to mortgage rates.
If they trend down as the year goes on, as they’re expected to do, that could lead to more buyer demand and even higher home price forecasts.
Basically, it’s all about supply and demand. With supply still so limited, anything that causes demand to go up will likely cause prices to go up, too.
Bottom Line
At first, experts believed home prices would only go up a little this year. But now, they’ve changed their minds and are forecasting that prices will grow even more than they originally thought.
If you have considered buying or selling a home this year, I would love to help! Please feel free to contact me.
Have you been thinking about selling your house? If so, here’s some good news. While the housing market isn’t as frenzied as it was during the ‘unicorn’ years when houses were selling quicker than ever, they’re still selling faster than normal.
The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to tell the story of median days on the market for every January from 2017 all the way through the latest numbers available. For Realtor.com, days on the market means from the time a house is listed for sale until its closing date or the date it’s taken off the market. This metric can help give you an idea of just how quickly homes are selling compared to more normal years:
When you look at the most recent data (shown in green), it’s clear homes are selling faster than they usually would (shown in blue). In fact, the only years when houses sold even faster than they are right now were the abnormal ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). According to Realtor.com:
“Homes spent 69 days on the market, which is three days shorter than last year and more than two weeks shorter than before the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Locally, The Charleston MLS is currently at 27 days on Market.
What Does This Mean for You?
Homes are selling faster than the norm for this time of year – and your house may sell quickly too. That’s because more people are looking to buy now that mortgage rates have come down, but there still aren’t enough homes to go around. Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, says:
“. . . 2024 is starting stronger than last year. And demand is increasing each week.”
Bottom Line
If you’re wondering if it’s a good time to sell your home, the most recent data suggests it is. The housing market appears to be stronger than it usually is at this time of year. To get the latest updates on what’s happening in our local market, let’s connect.
Seasonal Flow of Business Returns. We seem to have exited the “pandemic years” when real estate was busy at all points in the year and we have returned to a more normal seasonal flow of business as shown in the chart below. All three lines (2022, 2023, and the 15 year average) track each other closely throughout the year. The orange line represents ratified contracts by week 2022, the green line is 2023 and the blue line is the 15-year average for each week.
As inventory was still constrained and interest rates begin retreating, written sales market wide finished -7% in December of ’23 versus December of ‘22
The Median sale price in the Charleston MLS continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $420k where it has been for most of the last 20 months.
Inventory remained below what is needed for a balanced market throughout 2023. At end of December active Inventory stood at approximately 2,800 listings. This level of inventory is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022, but still below what is needed for a balanced market. 3,000 additional listings are needed market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)
The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is expressed visually in the chart below.
The Good News` – Although inventory is still constrained, we are starting to see a trend of new listings hitting the market increasing over the same month a year prior for the first time in two years. This has happened for three consecutive months.
Absorption Rate By the end of the 2023, The Charleston market had about eight weeks of inventory as a whole, still trending more toward a seller’s market (this can vary by pricerange and specific location). The most active areas have inventory levels in the 5–9-week range.
NewConstruction At December’s end, new construction represented approximately 49% of pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprised about 33% of the closings and new homes represented approximately 32% of the available inventory.
Real Estate Matters in Charleston SC - Gena Glaze 