Category Archives: Market Statistics

02/22/2024 · 11:44 am

Expert Home Price Forecasts for 2024 Revised Up

Over the past few months, experts have revised their 2024 home price forecasts based on the latest data and market signals, and they’re even more confident prices will rise, not fall.

What’s caused the change?

2024 Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

The chart below shows what seven expert organizations think will happen to home prices in 2024. It compares their first 2024 home price forecasts (made at the end of 2023) with their newest projections:

a blue and white graph with text

The middle column shows that, at first, these experts thought home prices would only go up a little this year. But if you look at the column on the right, you’ll see they’ve all updated their forecasts and now think prices will go up more than they originally thought. And some of the differences are major.

There are two big factors keeping such strong upward pressure on home prices. The first is how few homes are for sale right now. According to Business Insider:

“Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up . . .”

A lack of housing inventory has been pushing prices up for a long time now – and that’s not expected to change dramatically this year. But what has changed a bit is mortgage rates.

Late last year when most housing market experts were calling for home prices to rise only a little bit in 2024, mortgage rates were up and buyer demand was more moderate.

Now that rates have come down from their peak last October, and with further declines expected over the course of the year, buyer demand has picked up. That increase in demand, along with an ongoing lack of inventory, is what’s caused the experts to feel the upward pressure on prices will be stronger than they expected a couple months ago.

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Forecast Revisions

Real estate experts regularly revise their home price forecasts as the housing market shifts. It’s a normal part of their job that ensures their projections are always up-to-date and factor in the latest changes in the housing market.

That means they’ll continue to revise their projections as the housing market changes, just as they’ve always done. How those forecasts change next is anyone’s guess but pay attention to mortgage rates.

If they trend down as the year goes on, as they’re expected to do, that could lead to more buyer demand and even higher home price forecasts.

Basically, it’s all about supply and demand. With supply still so limited, anything that causes demand to go up will likely cause prices to go up, too.

Bottom Line

At first, experts believed home prices would only go up a little this year. But now, they’ve changed their minds and are forecasting that prices will grow even more than they originally thought.

If you have considered buying or selling a home this year, I would love to help! Please feel free to contact me.

Gena Glaze

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02/12/2024 · 4:33 pm

Houses Are Still Selling Fast!

Have you been thinking about selling your house? If so, here’s some good news. While the housing market isn’t as frenzied as it was during the ‘unicorn’ years when houses were selling quicker than ever, they’re still selling faster than normal.

The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to tell the story of median days on the market for every January from 2017 all the way through the latest numbers available. For Realtor.com, days on the market means from the time a house is listed for sale until its closing date or the date it’s taken off the market. This metric can help give you an idea of just how quickly homes are selling compared to more normal years:

When you look at the most recent data (shown in green), it’s clear homes are selling faster than they usually would (shown in blue). In fact, the only years when houses sold even faster than they are right now were the abnormal ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). According to Realtor.com:

“Homes spent 69 days on the market, which is three days shorter than last year and more than two weeks shorter than before the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Locally, The Charleston MLS is currently at 27 days on Market.

What Does This Mean for You?

Homes are selling faster than the norm for this time of year – and your house may sell quickly too. That’s because more people are looking to buy now that mortgage rates have come down, but there still aren’t enough homes to go around. Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, says:

“. . . 2024 is starting stronger than last year. And demand is increasing each week.”

Bottom Line

If you’re wondering if it’s a good time to sell your home, the most recent data suggests it is. The housing market appears to be stronger than it usually is at this time of year. To get the latest updates on what’s happening in our local market, let’s connect.

Gena Glaze

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2023 – A Year In Review – Charleston Area Real Estate SC

Seasonal Flow of Business Returns. We seem to have exited the “pandemic years” when real estate was busy at all points in the year and we have returned to a more normal seasonal flow of business as shown in the chart below. All three lines (2022, 2023, and the 15 year average) track each other closely throughout the year. The orange line represents ratified contracts by week 2022, the green line is 2023 and the blue line is the 15-year average for each week.

As inventory was still constrained and interest rates begin retreating, written sales market wide finished -7% in December of ’23 versus December of ‘22

 The Median sale price in the Charleston MLS continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $420k where it has been for most of the last 20 months.

Inventory remained below what is needed for a balanced market throughout 2023.         At end of December active Inventory stood at approximately 2,800 listings. This level of inventory is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022, but still below what is needed for a balanced market.  3,000 additional listings are needed market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)

The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is expressed visually in the chart below.

The Good News` – Although inventory is still constrained, we are starting to see a trend of new listings hitting the market increasing over the same month a year prior for the first time in two years. This has happened for three consecutive months.

Absorption Rate                                       By the end of the 2023, The Charleston market had about eight weeks of inventory as a whole, still trending more toward a seller’s market (this can vary by price range and specific location). The most active areas have inventory levels in the 5–9-week range.

New Construction                                       At December’s end, new construction represented approximately 49% of pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprised about 33% of the closings and new homes represented approximately 32% of the available inventory.

Looking forward for what 2024 will bring!

Gena Glaze

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01/15/2024 · 2:05 pm
12/01/2023 · 1:19 pm

NOVEMBER – STATS OVERVIEW- Charleston SC Area Real Estate

The median sales price in the Charleston market for November 2023 was $399,408, down just 0.15% from November 2022. The average days on market for November 2023 was 38 with approximately 2.32 months of inventory.

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Gena Glaze

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11/10/2023 · 11:15 am

U.S. Home Prices Rose for the Sixth Month in a Row, per Case-Shiller 20-City house price index

Home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. metros rose for the sixth month in a row, as the housing market continues to deal with a shortage of homes for sale.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 1% in August, as compared with the previous month.

On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the 20 major metro markets in the U.S. were up 2.2% nationally.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose on a month-over-month basis in August by 0.9%, but rose 2.6% over the past year. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Key details: Chicago posted the strongest year-over-year home-price gains in the month of August, at 5%. It was the fourth month in a row that the city led the rankings.

New York and Detroit followed, up 4.98% and 4.8% respectively.

The West continued to lag behind the rest of the country: Home prices fell in Las Vegas and Phoenix the most.

CitiesChange from last year
Atlanta3.4%
Boston3.1%
Charlotte3%
Chicago5%
Cleveland3.9%
Dallas-1.7%
Denver-0.6%
Detroit4.8%
Las Vegas-4.9%
Los Angeles3.2%
Miami3.3%
Minneapolis1.9%
New York5%
Phoenix-3.9%
Portland-1.5%
San Diego4.1%
San Francisco-2.5%
Seattle-1.5%
Tampa0%
Washington3.4%
Composite-202.2%

A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency also showed home prices rose in August, up 0.6% from July.

And over the last year, the FHFA index was up 5.6%.

Home prices were the strongest in the Middle Atlantic region, according to the government’s data.

Big picture: With homeowners not keen on selling their homes, the U.S. housing market will continue to face a shortage of homes for sale, and by extension, see home prices rise. Interested buyers continue to converge on limited inventory.

Until supply catches up, barring any major events, we’re not likely to see a big movement in home prices.

What S&P said: “On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.8%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.

“The year’s increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed housing demand, but after years of very low rates, it seems to have suppressed supply even more,” he added.

“Unless higher rates or other events lead to general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” Lazzara said.

What are they saying? “Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates,” Thomas Ryan, property economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

“We think monthly gains in house prices will soften over the remainder of the year in response to the rise in mortgage rates to just under 8.0%. But an extreme lack of inventory in the existing homes market means we don’t anticipate any further house price falls,” he added.

Market reaction: Stocks were up in early trading on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 4.9%.

Info from Realtor.com

Gena Glaze

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11/03/2023 · 10:42 pm

October 2023 Stats – Charleston SC Real Estate

MLS data – Inventory remained low in October with just 2.13 months of inventory and the median sales price continues on a similar track at just over 400k,

Median Sale Price for October 2023 was $407,093, YTD – $404,981 Absorption Rate – 2.13 (Months of Inventory) YTD – 1.9 Median Days on Market was 15

More detail below.

Summary Statistics
Oct-23Oct-22% Chg2023 YTD2022 YTD% Chg
Absorption Rate2.181.9213.541.91.2255.74
Average List Price$844,051$720,11317.21$670,210$613,6539.22
Median List Price$469,900$436,2547.71$425,000$410,0003.66
Average Sale Price$621,930$561,44610.77$577,168$552,8894.39
Median Sale Price$407,093$400,0001.77$404,981$398,8901.53
Average CDOM352920.69412286.36
Median CDOM151315.38155200.00

Gena Glaze

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10/20/2023 · 9:22 pm

Charleston Area Real Estate – Market Watch Videos – October 2023

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08/26/2023 · 6:26 pm

Market Update – Charleston SC Real Estate-8/23

1) Written sales market wide finished -7% in July of ’23 versus July of ’22.

  • July finishing at -7% to last July is an excellent outcome

(2) Early August showed a relatively strong 314 properties go under contract. Sales (green line) have remained remarkably close to the 15 year average (blue line) for about two and a half months.

The orange line represents ratified contracts by week last year…the green line is this year…and the blue line is the 15 year average for each week.

Green line=2023 Orange Line=2022 Blue Line=15-year average

(3)  Mortgage rates remain elevated, and this is obviously holding back sales levels.

  • 6.5% may be the “magic number”
  • When 30 year mortgage rates trend below that number and stay there for a reasonable period of time, buyers will come off of the sidelines and resale listing inventory will start to come back online at a higher rate than what we are seeing currently

(4)  The Median sale price in the Charleston market continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $420k where it has been for most of the last 15 months, sitting at $405k in June.

(5) Active Inventory stands at 2,412 listings. We haven’t seen much inventory growth this summer and inventory typically starts a slow seasonal decline in September or October. This will also likely put upward pressure on prices, or at the very least hold prices steady.

While this level of inventory is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022:

  • We need roughly 4,600 additional listings market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)
  • The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is substantial. The chart below is an attempt to express this visually.

(6) There continues to be a reluctance of owners to list their property; new listings taken were down 17% in July of ’23 versus July of ’22.

7) The Charleston market has about six or seven weeks of inventory as a whole, still solidly a seller’s market (this can vary by price range and specific location, of course). The most active areas have inventory levels in the 3-5 week range.

(8) New construction represents 46% of all pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprises about 32% of the closings.

  • New Homes “pendings” will always be higher than new homes closings as new construction typically sits in pending status for far longer than a resale, and the new homes tend to “pile up” in pending status, so new homes actually represent about 32% of the sales market currently
  • New homes represent 33% of the available inventory currently
  • New construction does not appear to be poised to ride to the rescue of our inventory problem; the last 12 months of permits issued in the tri-county sits at almost exactly the midpoint (5,354 single family permits) between the historical high point (8,084 permits) and the historical low point (2,732 permits)
  • To meet demand in a low resale inventory environment, it is projected that we need approximately 7,000-8,000 new single-family builds in Charleston annually.

(9) Foreclosures and Short Sales continue to hold at a combined .6% of all available listings currently. This is down from 1.8% of all available listings on 1/1/2020. This market has been and continues to be basically nonexistent and there are very few “newly distressed” properties in the pipeline.

  • “Serious delinquencies fell to the lowest level since August 2006; June delinquency rate was the third lowest on record.” – Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Headline from last week
  • Record home equity is driving the low delinquency rate along with high levels of employment. Many homeowners do not want to walk away from their equity.

(10) We are at roughly double the monthly pre-pandemic sales levels of $1MM+ properties. This market segment remains surprisingly robust.

f you have considered buying or selling a home in The Tri-County area, I would love to help!

Gena Glaze

843-343-8239

gena@genaglaze.com

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02/03/2022 · 10:17 am

Price increase 16.6% in 12 months – Charleston SC Area Real Estate.

Prices grew 16.6% in 12 months according to the stats recorded by our Local MLS, Charleston-Trident Association of Realtors. In January of 2021. The median sales price was documented at just under $305,000 and by January of 2022 the median sales price was $353,000, up 16.6%.

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