South Carolina is among a handful of Sunbelt states where growth is pulling away from the rest of the country, and one of the region’s top economists says there doesn’t seem to be anything on the horizon to stem the acceleration.
“I don’t see anything in the data that makes me think that growth in the Carolinas, in particular, is going to slow down,” Laura Ullrich, a Charlotte-based economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said during the S.C. International Trade Conference on the Isle of Palms.
The lures that have drawn newcomers from other states — jobs, weather and relatively lower costs — aren’t going to change, Ullrich said. Already, South Carolina ranks as the nation’s fastest-growing state percentagewise, with 1.7 percent growth in 2023, according to census data. That’s nearly 91,000 more people than the previous year, with roughly 19,000 of them moving to the three-county Charleston region.
“And, quite frankly, we still have several mid-sized metros that have a lot of growing to do,” Ullrich said
“If you live in Charleston, things seem super expensive here,” she said. “But it’s a lot cheaper than a house in Fairfax County, Virginia, and a heck of a lot cheaper than San Diego. So, if you look at the areas where that migration is coming from, they are very expensive. Yes, it’s expensive to buy a house in Mount Pleasant. But if you move from San Diego, you might buy a house in Mount Pleasant and another on Lake Murray.”
At the same time, wages are often much lower in South Carolina, and that can amplify the housing crisis regardless of cost comparisons.
“Everybody is worried about housing,” Ullrich said. “The only ways to fix it are, basically, subsidies and density. And people don’t want to talk about density. It’s really hard because everyone wants affordable housing but when density is going up down the road, people complain to their city, and they don’t do it.”
There are a few intangible variables that could crimp growth, such as rising geopolitical tensions or a surprise event that no one can forecast. But Ullrich said the biggest question is how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates going forward.
“Is it going to be an elevator or slow stair steps?” she said.
The answer could go a long way in determining how the housing crisis — both affordability and availability — shakes out in the Charleston region and throughout the Sunbelt.
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Real Estate Matters in Charleston SC - Gena Glaze 