Autumn Timber LLC plans to purchase land from Dorchester County
Dorchester County Council has approved tax incentives, a water-service agreement and a land deal to a business that’s proposing to invest $510 million, but the plans for the property or how many jobs it will bring to an industrial park west of Summerville has not been disclosed.
John Truluck, the county’s economic development director, said the company behind Autumn Timber is working through some final “regulatory issues.” He hopes it will be ready to disclose its identity and plans by the end of the month.
Arborgen’s research and development complex below is among the companies in Pine Hill Business Campus, where Autumn Timber LLC plans to purchase land from Dorchester County
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The tax breaks are among the biggest ever approved for a private business by Dorchester County. They increasingly look to be tailored toward a data center operator, which requires vast amounts of water to cool equipment, but not formally disclosed.
Written sales market wide in September 2023 finished 6% below September of ‘2022.
Based on interest rates remaining higher, it is anticipated that the second half of the year will be similar to the first half of the year with sales in the -15% year-over-year range
Carolina One finished the month with written sales 21 points OVER the market.
Last week saw 266 properties go under contract, a “normal” number for this time of year but far below the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. See chart Below – Sales (green line) still remain remarkably close to the 15 year average (blue line) and have for about three and a half months. The orange line represents ratified contracts by week last year…the green line is this year…and the blue line is the 15 year average for each week. Follow the green line below.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, which can hold back sales levels.
It is speculated that 6.5% could be the “magic number”; to increase activity. When 30 year mortgage rates trend below that number and stay there for a reasonable period of time, more buyers may come off of the sidelines and resale listing inventory will start to come back online at a higher rate than what we are seeing currently.
The Median sale price in the Charleston market continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $420k where it has been for most of the last 18 months.
Active Inventory stands at 2,850 listings. While this level of inventory is a significant increase over the listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022, We still need roughly 4,100 additional listings market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory).
How Mortgage rates effect inventory: About 60% of properties have a mortgage. Of the 60% that have a mortgage, 90% of those mortgages have an interest rate below 5%. Many owners are reluctant to trade their lower interest rates for current market rates.
The Charleston market has about six or seven weeks of inventory as a whole, although this can vary some by price range and specific location. It is still a seller’s market. The most active areas have inventory levels in the 4-8 week range.
To meet the recommendations outlined in the Comprehensive Plan, the City of Goose Creek is updating the current Zoning and Land Development Ordinance with the following goals in mind:
Modernize the zoning code to reflect the community’s current and future needs, values and aspirations.
Guide the design and development of main streets, neighborhoods and activity centers to support community goals while celebrating the unique character of the neighborhoods and create a sense of place for residents.
Ensure the Goose Creek zoning code is fair, predictable, and accessible.
Public Input is encouraged. The next zoning open houses are listed below
Wednesday, November 8th 11:00am-1:00pm @ City Hall – 519 N. Goose Creek Boulevard
Wednesday, November 8th 5:00pm-7:00 @ City Hall – 519 N. Goose Creek Boulevard
Nationally, It has been speculated that home prices would crash this year, but prices aren’t in a downward spiral and may actually finish the year strong. This is mainly due to the supply of homes for sale being too low. There are just more buyers looking to buy than homes available and that’s kept prices from falling.
Most Experts Project Home Prices Will Net Positive this Year
The general consensus from industry experts is that home price appreciation will actually be positive for 2023. The graph below shows the latest 2023 year-end forecasts from six different organizations:
The majority of experts are optimistic about home price growth.
The projection from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is for a slight decline and if you average all six forecasts together, the expectation is that prices will net somewhere around 3.3% positive growth for the year.
One of the six forecasts represented in the graph is the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics. It combines survey results from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. The HPES found that the average from all 100 of those experts is 3.3% price growth for the year.
While individual forecasts may vary, both the HPES survey and the average of these forecasts predict positive growth.
Post and Courier reports Starlight Homes, a division of Ashton Woods Homes, recently paid $5.4 million for 27 acres in the former Wildcat Tract that is now part of the expansive Cane Bay Plantation, off U.S. Highway 176. The seller was HIC Wildcat TH LLC of Miami, which bought the property 21 months ago for $5.07 million.
Starlight’s website shows it has one subdivision in Cane Bay called Pender Woods. The company also is developing homes in Watson Hill in North Charleston off S.C. Highway 61 in Dorchester County, where it also purchased 40 lots for $3.13 million from New York-based Brookfield Holdings LLC.
About 10,000 homes are permitted for the 4,500-acre Cane Bay tract off U.S. Highway 176. The neighboring 2,000-acre Wildcat Tract was bought by Cane Bay developer Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Development in 2016 and will have 5,700 homes at build-out.
Cane Bay has more than 7,000 homes on the ground in the combined tracts, according to a spokeswoman. About half of the planned houses have been built in the developing unincorporated community that will have almost 40,000 residents at full buildout. That’s more than the current population of the city of Spartanburg, the state’s 12th largest municipality, per Post and Courier.
At full buildout, the 6,600-acre Watson Hill tract is slated to have 1,000 houses.
Agrihood site to include fitness, lake house, water slide and sports courts
A Charleston-area master-planned community where 3,600 homes will be built at completion will break ground in the fall on several new amenities.
Coming to Carnes Crossroads in Goose Creek will be a 10-acre farm with organically grown products, a barn to pick up produce, community house near Lake Hewitt, fitness center, pool with a slide tower, and courts for tennis, pickleball and half-court basketball.
A product of Boston-based Freehold Communities, the development with 700 homes on the ground as of Sept. 15, features more than 9 miles of walking trails, schools and monthly farmers markets with Lowcountry vendors. The 2,300-acre Carnes Crossroads community is approved for about 4,500 homes.
“The central component of the barn within our Amenity Center encourages our vision for a vibrant, healthy and connected lifestyle for our residents,” said Gerrit Albert, Freehold’s division president for South Carolina and Georgia. “The addition of these community spaces will foster a sense of togetherness and engagement that is central to our Agrihood mission.”
(1) Written sales market wide finished 13% less in August of ’23 versus August of ’22.
It was anticipated that sales would be -15% for the year (versus 2022) with the first half of the year being much worse than -15% and the back half of the year being better than -15%
Based on interest rates remaining stubbornly and persistently high, we are now anticipating that the second half of the year will be similar to the first half of the year with sales in the -15% year-over-year range
(2) Last week saw 239 properties go under contract, a very “normal” number for this time of year but far below the “juiced up” pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Sales (green line) have remained remarkably close to the 15 year average (blue line) for about three and a half months.
The orange line represents ratified contracts by week last year…the green line is this year…and the blue line is the 15 year average for each week.
(3) Mortgage rates remaining elevated is holding back sales.
4) The Median sale price in the Charleston market continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $420k where it has been for most of the last 16 months.
(5) Active Inventory stands at 2,510 listings. We haven’t seen much inventory growth this summer and inventory typically starts a slow seasonal decline in September or October. It is believed this may likely put upward pressure on prices, or at the very least hold prices steady.
While this level of inventory is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022:
Roughly an additional 5,500 listings is needed market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)
The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is substantial. The chart below is an attempt to express this visually.
(6) The number of new listings taken in August was even with the same month a year prior for the first time in two years, but inventory still remains low.
7) The Charleston market has about six or seven weeks of inventory as a whole, still solidly a seller’s market (this can vary by price range and specific location). The most active areas have inventory levels in the 3-6 week range.
(8) New construction represents 46% of all pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprises about 32% of the closings.
New Homes “pendings” will always be higher than new homes closings as new construction typically sits in pending status for far longer than a resale, and the new homes tend to “pile up” in pending status, so new homes actually represent about 32% of the sales market currently
New homes represent 33% of the available inventory, currently.
(9) Foreclosures and Short Sales continue to hold at a combined .6% of all available listings currently. This is down from 1.8% of all available listings on 1/1/2020. This market has very few “newly distressed” properties in the pipeline.
“Serious delinquencies fell to the lowest level since August 2006; the July delinquency rate was negligibly higher than the lowest level ever recorded.” – Black Knight Mortgage Monitor statement from two weeks ago.
Record home equity is driving the low delinquency rate along with high levels of employment.
(10)We are at roughly double the monthly pre-pandemic sales levels of $1MM+ properties. This market segment remains surprisingly robust.
SC Housing has down payment assistance for buyer’s who Qualify. The assistance is forgivable after 15 years.
The home sales price and income limit recently increased. Currently, the sales price limit is $395,000 for most SC counties. The income limit for for 1 or 2 person households in Berkeley County is now $121,500 and for households of 3 or more people, it is $141,820. The chart below shows the various counties and income limits.
Real Estate Matters in Charleston SC - Gena Glaze 
