After the latest reports on the economy, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s recent comments, mortgage rates started dropping. And according to Freddie Mac, they’re now at a level we haven’t seen since February – see graph below:
The Relationship Between Rates and Demand
In the housing market, there’s generally a relationship between mortgage rates and buyer demand. As rates go down, buyer demand typically increases. Buyers who were on the fence over higher rates may resume their searches.
“If you’re ready to buy, now might be the time to strike. Home prices have been rising primarily because of a longstanding shortage of homes for sale. That’s unlikely to change, and if mortgage rates do fall below 6%, it’s possible buyers would enter the market in masse, further pushing up prices and resurrecting bidding wars.”
If you’re ready to start the process, I’d love to help! Feel Free to contact me anytime!
Post and Courier recently reported that South Carolina could grow to nearly 6.4 million residents by 2042 based on the state’s latest projections . The bulk of this growth is projected to be in 5 S.C. counties.
Five counties could see their populations increase by 49 percent or more from 2024 to 2042.
Horry County tops the list with an expected gain of 216,662 additional residents, which means a 53 percent population increase.
Berkeley, Jasper, Lancaster and Spartanburg counties are expected to see gains between 49 and 51 percent.
The five counties are expected to see more than 80 percent of the statewide population growth. The projected increases in population are: Horry, 216,662; Spartanburg, 179,078; Greenville, 153,555; Berkeley, 130,232; and York, 119,111.
Every county touching the Atlantic Ocean is expected to gain residents. At the north end of the coast and home to Myrtle Beach and Conway, Horry County has been among the nation’s fastest-growing places for many years and would be South Carolina’s fastest-growing county.
The tri-county Charleston metro area is expected to have more than 1 million residents in 2042, with the two inland counties — where there’s more undeveloped land — leading the gains. Berkeley County’s population could account for more than 70 percent of the growth, while the populations of Charleston and Dorchester counties are projected to increase by 8 and 11 percent, respectively.
Down the coast, the ever-growing Hilton Head/Beaufort/Bluffton area in Beaufort and Jasper counties could gain more than 45,000 residents.
South Carolina’s population was the most rapidly growing in the nation in 2023. The state had a slightly negative birth rate, with more deaths than births, so the population increase was entirely due to people moving to the state.
The state’s projections use existing data and trends to look ahead nearly 20 years, and assume growth follows patterns seen today. Of course, those patterns could change.
As we move into the second half of 2024, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales.
Home Prices Are Expected To Climb Moderately
Home prices are forecasted to rise at a more normal pace. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from seven of the most trusted sources in the industry:
The reason for continued appreciation? The supply of homes for sale. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“One thing that seems to be pretty solid is that home prices are going to continue to go up, and the reason is that we don’t have housing inventory.”
While inventory is up compared to the last couple of years, it’s still low overall. And because there still aren’t enough homes to go around, that’ll keep upward pressure on prices.
If you’re thinking of buying, the good news is you won’t have to deal with prices skyrocketing like they did during the pandemic. Just remember, prices aren’t expected to drop. They’ll continue climbing, just at a slower pace.
Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down Slightly
One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit, according to Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and NAR (see chart below):
When you buy, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For sellers, lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market, which can help you sell faster and potentially at a higher price.
Home Sales Are Projected To Hold Steady
For 2024, the number of home sales will be about the same as last year and may even rise slightly. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR to the 4.8 million homes that sold last year:
The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why:
“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”
With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year.
The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why:
“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”
With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year. This means more people will be able to move.
If you have considered buying or selling, feel free to contact me anytime! I have 25 years’ experience and can help you navigate today’s market to reach your goals.
The Median sales Price at the end of June in the Charleston MLS was $425,000 and the average sales price $646,792
The Median sale price in the Charleston market continues to stay in a tight band between $400k and $425k where it has been for most of the last 24+ months. In June, the Median Sale Price matched it’s all time high of approximately $425,000 – has remained at that level for three consecutive months.
The seasonal surge in median is trending about 3% above last year’s seasonal surge, suggesting that the current pricing in our market has a solid base for additional price gains.
WRIITEN SALES
Written sales market-wide finished +3% in June of ’24 versus June of ’23, the first year-over-year increase in 2024. This is an indicator of future sales.
Last week saw 281 properties go under contract market-wide.
The orange line represents ratified contracts by week last year…the green line is this year…and the blue line is the 15 year average for each week.
Follow the green line below.
Using a median gives you the middle point of the data that is less likely to be skewed, Most experts believe it is best for tracking data Longterm.
PRICE PER SQFT
While the median sales price is remaining in a tight band, The Average Sold Dollar per sqft remains at an all-time high, well above one year ago, indicating that consumers are getting a smaller house for the money and that homes are continuing to appreciate despite a stable median Sale Price
INVENTORY
2,113 New listings came on the market in June 2024 which is a 6.1 % increase over June of 2023 and year to date, there is a16.6% increase of new listings over 2023.
Active Inventory stands at approximately 3,800 listings in mid July.
While this level of inventory is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing “floor” that we set in February of 2022, we still need roughly 4,300 additional listings market wide to achieve a balanced market (5 months of inventory)
The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is substantial. see chart below.
NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES
New construction represents 42% of all pending contracts in the MLS and new construction comprises about 38% of the closings.
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Foreclosures and Short Sales continue to hold at a combined 0.9% of all available listings currently. They are still at extremely low levels.
OVER-MILLION MARKET
We are at roughly double the monthly pre-pandemic sales levels of $1MM+ properties. This market segment remains surprisingly robust.
These statistics reflect the entire Charleston Metro area, but real estate is hyper-local and can vary by area and neighborhood. If you would like information about your neighborhood and home, please don’t hesitate to contact me!
At the end of May 2024, the median sales price closed out in the Charleston MLS at $425,000 and Median Days on Market was 12.
The current level of demand, although down 40% from 2021, is pacing around the 15 year average and is happening when interest rates are the highest that they have been in 20-25 years . Further, prices are hovering at their record highs and have been for aproximately18 months. This means that affordability is more challenging than it has been for the last few decades (high prices + high rates) and yet sales sit at a historically appropriate level in terms of units. This suggests that the consumer wants and/or needs housing to the point where they are willing to deal with affordability issues – at least for now.
The chart below shows this year’s number of ratified contracts market wide by week (green), last year’s number (orange) and the 15 year average (blue). As you can see, the green line has tracked very closely with the blue line with only two weeks well below the 15 year average and one week well above the 15 year average.
Supply
When a life change occurs (Marriage, death, additions to a family, new job, etc) frequently, housing needs change which often leads to a new listing entering the housing market.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen a pause in this cycle as interest rates have risen rapidly from the 3 percent range into the mid 7 percent range. Homeowners who have a mortgage in place at a very low interest rate are reluctant to part with that low rate and move into a home, with a higher rate, that may better suits their needs.
According to ICE Mortgage Technology, over 90% of the mortgages in the United States have a mortgage rate under 6%.
See below from ICE:
Change still happens in people’s lives and homeowners can only hold back for so long. They will eventually list their homes (move) when the life circumstances dictate the need is great, despite the rate differential. We have been seeing this happen.
This trend started in November of 2023. In the chart below, the orange line shows listings taken in the most recent 12 months and the blue line shows the prior 12 months. You’ll note that, inside the red circle (November onward), new listings taken have outpaced the prior year every month.
A Balanced Market
A “balanced market” is generally considered to be when we have around 5 months of inventory, meaning that the current level of listings, if no new properties enter the market, would sell down to zero in five months based on current sales levels. On average, it would take five months (150 days) to sell a home.
Months of inventory” is simply a way of measuring supply and demand, which of course is what drives pricing.
At roughly five months of inventory, home prices stabilize
If we have less than five months of inventory, prices generally increase
If we have more than 5-6 months of inventory, prices generally soften
Where is the Charleston housing market’s month’s of supply currently?
At May’s end MLS stats reflected approximately 2.6 month’s supply of inventory, still leaning toward a Seller’s market.
Below is to illustrate the gap (red arrow) between the inventory that we have (blue line) and the inventory that we need in order to have a balanced market (yellow line):
What does this mean?
For now, we don’t have enough inventory to meet demand (although inventory is slowly building)
Too little inventory for demand means that there is good support for current prices and perhaps a little more room for prices to grow
Worth noting:
Over the last 4 years or so, the market has been so imbalanced in favor of sellers that we now often see listing agents and/or sellers get uncomfortable/nervous/start to panic after a mere week or two on the market without a sale
What we’ve experienced over the last few years has skewed expectations to the point where favorable selling conditions that aren’t quite a “hot” market feels like things are “slow”
Area businesses are struggling to recruit new staff due to housing costs and some are taking matters into their own hands.
The Post and Courier recently reported that Cynthia Feldman of Sweetgrass Pharmacy who has looked for job applicants across South Carolina and into Georgia, stated. “The number one thing they all said is it’s too expensive to live here,”
The owner of Sweetgrass Pharmacy is now purchasing three townhomes in Twin Rivers Towns, just across the Wando River from Mount Pleasant. The homes start in the mid-$300,000 range. She will rent them to staff at below market rates and is considering buying more.
Likewise, Roper St. Francis Hospital is now soliciting proposals to build housing on its campus in northern Mount Pleasant to offer as an affordable solution. “The need is so pervasive,” said Roper’s interim CEO Megan Baker. “We do have a sense of urgency that’s palpable.”
Sweetgrass and Roper could be the first Charleston-area businesses to decide to buy or build housing in order to hire and retain employees, but they likely won’t be the last.
To be considered affordable, the cost of housing should not exceed 30 percent of one’s income. An annual income of $55,000, would translate to a monthly target housing cost of no more than $1,375, which is an amount that is getting harder to achieve.
In the tri-county area, the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development now considers a salary of $58,900 yearly to be “low income.” To put that in perspective, In 2023 The SC Department of Employment and Workforce reported that the average annual wage across all occupations in South Carolina was $54,250 (based on 2,080 hours of work in a year at an hourly rate of $26.08). This was up $3,600 from the average salary of $50,650 in 2022, a 7.1 percent gain.
“As residents are required to live further away from the communities in which they work and engage, more cars are on major roads for longer amounts of time, leading to increased traffic across the region,” the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce said in April. “As individuals and families spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing expenses, less money is available to be spread across businesses in our region.”
“It’s taken a while for the business community to come around, but they are aware that housing is a workforce issue,” said Josh Dix, who handles advocacy for the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors and chaired Charleston County’s housing task force.
The latest monthly housing report from Realtor.com® reveals that the typical listed price per square foot grew by a whopping 52.7% from May 2019 to May 2024.
The price per square foot is a crucial metric in real estate because it allows for easy comparison between different properties, regardless of their size. And while this is valuable information, it’s only one data point of many that buyers and sellers should consider.
Examining the markets with the steepest rises in price per square foot reveals substantial growth in popular metropolitan areas. Based on listing price, properties in the New York City metro area (+84.7%), Boston (+72.9%), and Nashville, TN (+68.6%), have seen the great increases in price per square foot since May 2019.
LOCAL – CHARLESTON MLS
Locally, our median price per sqft has increased about 65% from May of 2019 to May of 2024. Our median price per/sqft in May of 2019 was $150 / sqft and in May of 2024 it was $229 / sqft .
Our median sales price has increased about 67% from May of 2019 to May of 2024. Our median sales price in May of 2019 was $285,000 and in May of 2024 it was $425,000
March’s Median sales price was $413,500, up 2.6 percent from March of 2023
Median Days on Market was 16, down 20 percent from March of 2023
Sales – Closed homes in March 2024 were down 6.8 percent compared to March 2023, possibly due to higher interest rates, but it seems that buyers that were holding out for lower rates have started taking the plunge, as evidence by the pending sales – which rose 5.9 percent year-over-year and 6.7% year-to-date, which could Indicate we are moving into a busy spring market!
New Inventory is continuing to Increase! New Listings are up 17.3 percent year-to-date. and although inventory is still constrained there is definitely more homes coming on-line to help with demand. At the end of March, we had 2.4 months of inventory, compared to 1.74 months in March of 2023.
Are you thinking about making a move? If so, now may be the perfect time to start the process. That’s because experts say the best week to list your house is just around the corner.
A recent Realtor.comstudy looked at housing market trends over the past several years (with the exception of 2020, since it was an unusual year), and found the best week to put your house on the market this year is April 14-20:
“Every year, one week stands out from the rest as that perfect stretch of time when it’s great to be a home seller. This year, the week of April 14–20 is the best time to sell—that is, if sellers want to see lots of interest in their homes, sell quickly, and pocket some extra cash, according to Realtor.com® data.”
While the spring market is a great time to sell no matter the week, this may be the peak sweet spot. And if you’ve been putting your plans on the back burner and waiting for the right time to act, this could be the nudge you need to make your move happen. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.comexplains:
“The third week of April brings the best combination of housing market factors for sellers. The best week offers higher buyer demand, lower competition [from other sellers], and fewer price reductions than the typical week of the year.”
If you have considered selling, feel free to contact me for a no-obligation consultation.
If you’re planning to move soon, you might be wondering if there’ll be more homes to choose from, where prices and mortgage rates are headed, and how to navigate today’s market. If so, here’s what the professionals are saying about what’s in store for this season.
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American:
“. . . it seems our general expectation for the spring is that we will see a pickup in inventory. In fact, that already seems to be happening. But it won’t necessarily be enough to satiate demand.”
“Where we are right now is the best of both worlds. Price increases are slowing, which is good for buyers, and prices are still relatively high, which is good for sellers.”
“There are slightly more homes for sale than this time last year, and there is still plenty of competition for well-priced houses. Buyers should prep their credit scores and sellers should prep their properties now, attractive listings are going pending in less than a month, and time on market will shrink in the weeks ahead.”
“While mortgage rates remain elevated, home shoppers who are looking to buy this spring could find more affordable homes on the market than they saw at the same time last year. Specifically, there were 20.6% more homes available for sale ranging between $200,000 and $350,000 in February 2024 than a year ago, surpassing growth in other price ranges.”
If you’re looking to sell, this spring might be your sweet spot because there just aren’t many homes on the market. Sure, inventory is rising, but it’s nowhere near enough to meet today’s buyer demand. That’s why they’re still selling so quickly.
If you’re looking to buy, the growing number of homes for sale this spring means you’ll have more choices than this time last year. But be prepared to move quickly since there’ll be plenty of competition with other buyers.
If you need assistance buying or selling a home in the Charleston Area, feel free to contact me! I would be glad to help!
Real Estate Matters in Charleston SC - Gena Glaze 